Narrative Confirmation Matrix

Narrative Confirmation Matrix

This page checks whether the current market story and the actual tape are moving together, lagging each other, or actively diverging.

Narrative and price are fighting each other across the tape.

Different parts of the market are sending opposite messages, so conviction should stay lower until the split resolves.

Latest console readNeutral / mixed conditions. Top driver: EURUSD (down).
Top thememacro news
Current readDiverging

Price leads

Aligned symbols37
Lagging symbols150
Diverging symbols775
Average confidence44
Narrative score-20
Price score+46
Narrative Confirmation Matrix

Central 2x2 matrix

Top-left shows price running ahead of the story. Bottom-right shows story support that price has not fully confirmed yet.

Price score
Narrative score

Price leads narrative

Symbols: 9
52
EURJPYmacro news

Euronet earnings missed by $0.14, revenue fell short of estimates

XAGUSDmacro news

Lula Wins Brazil Runoff; US Stocks Waver Ahead of Tech Earnings

USDKRWmacro news

Brazil Markets Set to Dive on Lula Win, EU Plans to Hit China With More Curbs

DXYmacro news

Capitol Federal earnings up next as commercial pivot continues

Confirmed upside

Symbols: 750
44
USDINRmacro news

India Overnight Rates Climb as Liquidity Surplus Evaporates

USDBRLmacro news

Neutral / mixed conditions. Top driver: EURUSD (down).

USDNGNmacro news

Neutral / mixed conditions. Top driver: EURUSD (down).

XPDUSDmacro news

Neutral / mixed conditions. Top driver: EURUSD (down).

Confirmed downside

Symbols: 6
53
SPXmacro news

US New Home Sales Fall Amid Surge in Mortgage Rates

BTCUSDmacro news

Wilson Pinpoints Clearing Events as Buying Opportunities

NDXmacro news

General Motors to move stock listing from NYSE to Nasdaq

COPPERmacro news

Copper Extends Drop as AI Stocks Weigh Ahead of Fed Meeting

Narrative leads price

Symbols: 197
43
ETHUSDmacro news

Bitcoin pinned at $80.2k as oil, rate jitters dent crypto appetite

NATGASmacro news

Surging Natural Gas Price Tests Europe’s Appetite for Action

NZDJPYmacro news

Neutral / mixed conditions. Top driver: EURUSD (down).

SOLUSDmacro news

Neutral / mixed conditions. Top driver: EURUSD (down).

Narrative Confirmation Matrix

Top five dislocations

These are the clearest places where the story and the tape are not telling the same thing.

EURJPYOutright divergence
Gap: +135

macro news

Euronet earnings missed by $0.14, revenue fell short of estimates

Sources: 1Events: 29Top reaction: N/A
XAGUSDOutright divergence
Gap: +134

macro news

Lula Wins Brazil Runoff; US Stocks Waver Ahead of Tech Earnings

Sources: 1Events: 4Top reaction: N/A
USDKRWOutright divergence
Gap: +130

macro news

Brazil Markets Set to Dive on Lula Win, EU Plans to Hit China With More Curbs

Sources: 1Events: 2Top reaction: N/A
DXYOutright divergence
Gap: +126

macro news

Capitol Federal earnings up next as commercial pivot continues

Sources: 1Events: 39Top reaction: N/A
USDJPYOutright divergence
Gap: +124

macro news

US New Home Sales Fall Amid Surge in Mortgage Rates

Sources: 1Events: 53Top reaction: N/A
Current read

Confirmed now

COPPERAligned
Price leads

macro news

Copper Extends Drop as AI Stocks Weigh Ahead of Fed Meeting

USDCLPAligned
Balanced lead

macro news

Neutral / mixed conditions. Top driver: EURUSD (down).

USDTRYAligned
Balanced lead

macro news

Neutral / mixed conditions. Top driver: EURUSD (down).

Current read

Narrative ahead

No symbol is clearly being pulled by narrative alone.

Current read

Price ahead

EURJPYDiverging
Price leads

macro news

Euronet earnings missed by $0.14, revenue fell short of estimates

XAGUSDDiverging
Price leads

macro news

Lula Wins Brazil Runoff; US Stocks Waver Ahead of Tech Earnings

USDKRWDiverging
Price leads

macro news

Brazil Markets Set to Dive on Lula Win, EU Plans to Hit China With More Curbs

Narrative Confirmation Matrix

Data quality

Source: SnapshotSnapshots: 274Matrix symbols: 962Distinct sources: 1Staleness: 0m
macro news
Console snapshotsok
Signal historyok
Event impactok
Market eventsok
Calendar eventsunavailable