Market Drivers

Interest rates, volatility and liquidity impacting the market.

EasingContained volatilityPartial confirmation
Window

Today: Market conditions are slightly improving, but high interest rates still limit upside.

Liquidity Loose · Curve Improving · Real yields High · Volatility Normal · Confirmation Partial confirmation.

Curve 10s2s+0.31%
Change over selected window-0.24%
US 10Y Real2.19%
Change over selected window+0.32%
US 10Y Breakeven2.20%
Change over selected window-0.16%
VIX18.89
Change over selected window-4.62
Macro Summary

Interest Rates Pressure

High rates still pressure markets.

RatesRising
CurveImproving
Low+0.27%High+0.57%Current+0.31%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: -0.24%
MarAprMayJun

Inflation & Real Yields

High real yields continue to limit risk appetite.

Real yieldsHigh
InflationFalling
Low1.83%High2.29%Current2.19%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.32%
MarAprMayJun

Volatility & Liquidity

Volatility and liquidity are giving a mixed market signal.

VolatilityNormal
LiquidityLoose
Low15.32High31.05Current18.89
Y axis: IndexChange over selected window: -4.62
MarAprMayJun
Underlying monitors

Curve & policy pressure

10s2s has re-steepened, easing some of the pressure from the front end.

UST2Y

UST 2Y

FRED
4.09%
1d -0.02%5d -2.62%
Low3.68%High4.24%Current4.09%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.41%
MarAprMayJun
UST10Y

UST 10Y

FRED
4.40%
1d -0.01%5d -2.00%
Low4.20%High4.67%Current4.40%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.17%
MarAprMayJun
BUND10Y

Bund 10Y

Bundesbank
Data unavailable

This series updates on a slower monthly source cadence.

This series updates on a slower monthly source cadence.

Real yields & inflation implied

Real yields remain elevated, a headwind for duration and risk assets.

REAL10Y

US 10Y Real

FRED
2.19%
1d -0.04%5d -1.79%
Low1.83%High2.29%Current2.19%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.32%
MarAprMayJun
T10YIE

US 10Y Breakeven

FRED
2.20%
1d -0.01%5d -2.22%
Low2.18%High2.50%Current2.20%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: -0.16%
MarAprMayJun

Volatility & stress

Volatility is contained, so the rates read is not being challenged by stress.

VIX

VIX

FRED
18.89
1d +0.265d +15.18%
Low15.32High31.05Current18.89
Y axis: IndexChange over selected window: -4.62
MarAprMayJun

Other Market Signals

Gold, oil and dollar signals that support or challenge the macro read.

DXY

DXY

Yahoo
101.36
1d -0.075d +0.51%
Low97.84High101.61Current101.36
Y axis: IndexChange over selected window: +1.65
MarAprMayJun
XAUUSD

Gold

Yahoo
4,096.30
1d +65.805d -3.03%
Low3,990.30High5,001.00Current4,096.30
Y axis: USDChange over selected window: -897.70
MarAprMayJun
WTI

WTI

Yahoo
69.23
1d -2.695d -9.62%
Low69.23High112.95Current69.23
Y axis: USDChange over selected window: -24.27
MarAprMayJun
BRENT

Brent

Yahoo
72.60
1d -2.665d -9.08%
Low72.60High118.35Current72.60
Y axis: USDChange over selected window: -27.61
MarAprMayJun
Data qualityLive rebuild · Jun 28 11:10 UTC
UpdatedJun 28 11:10 UTC
SourceLive rebuild
Staleness0s

Source health: FRED: DGS2 ok · DGS10 ok · DFII10 ok · T10YIE ok · VIXCLS ok · Yahoo cross-asset: DXY ok · XAUUSD ok · WTI ok · BRENT ok · Bundesbank: missing

  • This series updates on a slower monthly source cadence.
  • DXY, gold and oil come from the existing Yahoo cross-asset pipeline.
  • The live refresh completed, but snapshot persistence is temporarily unavailable.