Market Drivers

Interest rates, volatility and liquidity impacting the market.

EasingContained volatilityPartial confirmation
Window

Today: Market conditions are slightly improving, but high interest rates still limit upside.

Liquidity Loose · Curve Improving · Real yields High · Volatility Low · Confirmation Partial confirmation.

Curve 10s2s+0.47%
Change over selected window-0.03%
US 10Y Real2.32%
Change over selected window+0.22%
US 10Y Breakeven2.32%
Change over selected window-0.17%
VIX15.21
Change over selected window-3.22
Macro Summary

Interest Rates Pressure

Rates are stable, but the curve still needs confirmation.

RatesStable
CurveImproving
Low+0.27%High+0.54%Current+0.47%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: -0.03%
MayJunJulAug

Inflation & Real Yields

High real yields continue to limit risk appetite.

Real yieldsHigh
InflationFalling
Low2.06%High2.47%Current2.32%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.22%
MayJunJulAug

Volatility & Liquidity

Low volatility and looser liquidity are supporting markets.

VolatilityLow
LiquidityLoose
Low14.25High22.22Current15.21
Y axis: IndexChange over selected window: -3.22
MayJunJulAug
Underlying monitors

Curve & policy pressure

10s2s has re-steepened, easing some of the pressure from the front end.

UST2Y

UST 2Y

FRED
4.17%
1d -0.07%5d -0.48%
Low3.98%High4.37%Current4.17%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.08%
MayJunJulAug
UST10Y

UST 10Y

FRED
4.64%
1d -0.06%5d -1.49%
Low4.38%High4.75%Current4.64%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.05%
MayJunJulAug
BUND10Y

Bund 10Y

Bundesbank
Data unavailable

This series updates on a slower monthly source cadence.

This series updates on a slower monthly source cadence.

Real yields & inflation implied

Real yields remain elevated, a headwind for duration and risk assets.

REAL10Y

US 10Y Real

FRED
2.32%
1d -0.06%5d -3.73%
Low2.06%High2.47%Current2.32%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.22%
MayJunJulAug
T10YIE

US 10Y Breakeven

FRED
2.32%
1d 0.00%5d +0.87%
Low2.18%High2.49%Current2.32%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: -0.17%
MayJunJulAug

Volatility & stress

Volatility is contained, so the rates read is not being challenged by stress.

VIX

VIX

FRED
15.21
1d -0.245d +2.15%
Low14.25High22.22Current15.21
Y axis: IndexChange over selected window: -3.22
MayJunJulAug

Other Market Signals

Gold, oil and dollar signals that support or challenge the macro read.

DXY

DXY

Yahoo
99.14
1d -0.035d +0.24%
Low98.80High101.61Current99.14
Y axis: IndexChange over selected window: -0.13
MayJunJulAug
XAUUSD

Gold

Yahoo
4,630.30
1d +32.105d +2.52%
Low3,985.60High4,640.80Current4,630.30
Y axis: USDChange over selected window: +74.50
MayJunJulAug
WTI

WTI

Yahoo
82.85
1d +0.625d -5.67%
Low68.55High108.66Current82.85
Y axis: USDChange over selected window: -22.57
MayJunJulAug
BRENT

Brent

Yahoo
87.81
1d -0.035d -6.37%
Low71.57High112.10Current87.81
Y axis: USDChange over selected window: -21.45
MayJunJulAug
Data qualityLive rebuild · Aug 27 14:25 UTC
UpdatedAug 27 14:25 UTC
SourceLive rebuild
Staleness0s

Source health: FRED: DGS2 ok · DGS10 ok · DFII10 ok · T10YIE ok · VIXCLS ok · Yahoo cross-asset: DXY ok · XAUUSD ok · WTI ok · BRENT ok · Bundesbank: missing

  • This series updates on a slower monthly source cadence.
  • DXY, gold and oil come from the existing Yahoo cross-asset pipeline.
  • The live refresh completed, but snapshot persistence is temporarily unavailable.