Market Drivers

Interest rates, volatility and liquidity impacting the market.

EasingContained volatilityPartial confirmation
Window

Today: Market conditions are slightly improving, but high interest rates still limit upside.

Liquidity Loose · Curve Improving · Real yields High · Volatility Normal · Confirmation Partial confirmation.

Curve 10s2s+0.31%
Change over selected window-0.09%
US 10Y Real2.66%
Change over selected window+0.33%
US 10Y Breakeven2.34%
Change over selected window+0.09%
VIX19.45
Change over selected window+2.95
Macro Summary

Interest Rates Pressure

High rates still pressure markets.

RatesRising
CurveImproving
Low+0.20%High+0.53%Current+0.31%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: -0.09%
JulAugSepOct

Inflation & Real Yields

High real yields continue to limit risk appetite.

Real yieldsHigh
InflationStable
Low2.31%High2.95%Current2.66%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.33%
JulAugSepOct

Volatility & Liquidity

Volatility and liquidity are giving a mixed market signal.

VolatilityNormal
LiquidityLoose
Low14.21High20.66Current19.45
Y axis: IndexChange over selected window: +2.95
JulAugSepOct
Underlying monitors

Curve & policy pressure

10s2s has re-steepened, easing some of the pressure from the front end.

UST2Y

UST 2Y

FRED
4.69%
1d +0.04%5d -1.05%
Low4.13%High4.92%Current4.69%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.51%
JulAugSepOct
UST10Y

UST 10Y

FRED
5.00%
1d +0.04%5d -1.77%
Low4.55%High5.31%Current5.00%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.42%
JulAugSepOct
BUND10Y

Bund 10Y

Bundesbank
Data unavailable

This series updates on a slower monthly source cadence.

This series updates on a slower monthly source cadence.

Real yields & inflation implied

Real yields remain elevated, a headwind for duration and risk assets.

REAL10Y

US 10Y Real

FRED
2.66%
1d +0.02%5d -2.92%
Low2.31%High2.95%Current2.66%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.33%
JulAugSepOct
T10YIE

US 10Y Breakeven

FRED
2.34%
1d 0.00%5d -0.43%
Low2.20%High2.40%Current2.34%
Y axis: %Change over selected window: +0.09%
JulAugSepOct

Volatility & stress

Volatility is contained, so the rates read is not being challenged by stress.

VIX

VIX

FRED
19.45
1d +0.425d -2.70%
Low14.21High20.66Current19.45
Y axis: IndexChange over selected window: +2.95
JulAugSepOct

Other Market Signals

Gold, oil and dollar signals that support or challenge the macro read.

DXY

DXY

Yahoo
102.03
1d +0.225d +0.05%
Low98.77High102.58Current102.03
Y axis: IndexChange over selected window: +1.09
JulAugSepOct
XAUUSD

Gold

Yahoo
4,025.90
1d +18.005d -3.23%
Low3,992.10High4,697.80Current4,025.90
Y axis: USDChange over selected window: -43.80
JulAugSepOct
WTI

WTI

Yahoo
101.39
1d -1.885d -2.19%
Low75.22High105.83Current101.39
Y axis: USDChange over selected window: +22.05
JulAugSepOct
BRENT

Brent

Yahoo
110.28
1d -6.445d +0.67%
Low79.36High116.72Current110.28
Y axis: USDChange over selected window: +25.55
JulAugSepOct
Data qualityLive rebuild · Oct 26 23:36 UTC
UpdatedOct 26 23:36 UTC
SourceLive rebuild
Staleness0s

Source health: FRED: DGS2 ok · DGS10 ok · DFII10 ok · T10YIE ok · VIXCLS ok · Yahoo cross-asset: DXY ok · XAUUSD ok · WTI ok · BRENT ok · Bundesbank: missing

  • This series updates on a slower monthly source cadence.
  • DXY, gold and oil come from the existing Yahoo cross-asset pipeline.
  • The live refresh completed, but snapshot persistence is temporarily unavailable.