Narrative Confirmation Matrix

Narrative Confirmation Matrix

This page checks whether the current market story and the actual tape are moving together, lagging each other, or actively diverging.

Narrative and price are fighting each other across the tape.

Different parts of the market are sending opposite messages, so conviction should stay lower until the split resolves.

Latest console readNeutral / mixed conditions. Top driver: EURUSD (down).
Top thememacro news
Current readDiverging

Price leads

Aligned symbols35
Lagging symbols150
Diverging symbols779
Average confidence44
Narrative score+0
Price score+46
Narrative Confirmation Matrix

Central 2x2 matrix

Top-left shows price running ahead of the story. Bottom-right shows story support that price has not fully confirmed yet.

Price score
Narrative score

Price leads narrative

Symbols: 10
47
USDJPYmacro news

Hormuz Oil Flows Rising as Gulf Giants’ Ramp Up Accelerates

USDKRWmacro news

Asia FX mixed, dollar holds gains ahead of Jackson Hole; won rises on BOK hike

XAUUSDmacro news

Swedish Krona: Inflation risks may prompt tougher Riksbank stance - BNY

USDZARmacro news

PwC International Can’t Exit Evergrande Case, HK Court Rules

Confirmed upside

Symbols: 751
44
XAGUSDmacro news

Nvidia Fuels AI Optimism; Jackson Hole Kicks Off | Bloomberg Brief 08/27/2026

USDINRmacro news

Indian Rupee: Yields looking attractive after sell-off – DBS

EURJPYmacro news

European Central Bank: September hike prospects strengthen – Nordea

DXYmacro news

Fed’s Schmid warns energy shock is leaking into the economy

Confirmed downside

Symbols: 4
56
SPXmacro news

Oil: Hormuz traffic and policy risks – MUFG

NATGASmacro news

Permian Basin Set to Become Top US Gas Producer, Citi Says

BTCUSDmacro news

Oil: Hormuz traffic and policy risks – MUFG

USDTRYmacro news

Turkish Lira: Inflation expectations outpace CBRT forecasts – Commerzbank

Narrative leads price

Symbols: 199
43
NDXmacro news

US Tech Stocks Lift S&P 500, Nasdaq After Nvidia’s Outlook Beat

COPPERmacro news

BHP faces copper price risk as tariff concerns inflate rally

ETHUSDmacro news

Cryptocurrency chief facing extradition from UK to US on fraud charges

NZDJPYmacro news

Neutral / mixed conditions. Top driver: EURUSD (down).

Narrative Confirmation Matrix

Top five dislocations

These are the clearest places where the story and the tape are not telling the same thing.

NDXOutright divergence
Gap: +155

macro news

US Tech Stocks Lift S&P 500, Nasdaq After Nvidia’s Outlook Beat

Sources: 1Events: 12Top reaction: N/A
USDJPYOutright divergence
Gap: +130

macro news

Hormuz Oil Flows Rising as Gulf Giants’ Ramp Up Accelerates

Sources: 1Events: 132Top reaction: N/A
USDKRWOutright divergence
Gap: +129

macro news

Asia FX mixed, dollar holds gains ahead of Jackson Hole; won rises on BOK hike

Sources: 1Events: 7Top reaction: N/A
COPPEROutright divergence
Gap: +127

macro news

BHP faces copper price risk as tariff concerns inflate rally

Sources: 1Events: 3Top reaction: N/A
XAUUSDOutright divergence
Gap: +127

macro news

Swedish Krona: Inflation risks may prompt tougher Riksbank stance - BNY

Sources: 1Events: 152Top reaction: N/A
Current read

Confirmed now

USDCHFAligned
Price leads

macro news

Swiss Franc remains on the defensive despite stronger Swiss employment figures

NZDUSDAligned
Balanced lead

macro news

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Kiwi dips below 0.5950 as US Dollar strengthens

EURGBPAligned
Balanced lead

macro news

Euro struggles for direction against British Pound despite upbeat German data

Current read

Narrative ahead

USDCNHLagging
Narrative leads

macro news

Chinese Yuan: Pace of appreciation against US Dollar seen slowing – ING

Current read

Price ahead

NDXDiverging
Price leads

macro news

US Tech Stocks Lift S&P 500, Nasdaq After Nvidia’s Outlook Beat

USDJPYDiverging
Price leads

macro news

Hormuz Oil Flows Rising as Gulf Giants’ Ramp Up Accelerates

USDKRWDiverging
Price leads

macro news

Asia FX mixed, dollar holds gains ahead of Jackson Hole; won rises on BOK hike

Narrative Confirmation Matrix

Data quality

Source: SnapshotSnapshots: 274Matrix symbols: 964Distinct sources: 1Staleness: 2m
macro news
Console snapshotsok
Signal historyok
Event impactok
Market eventsok
Calendar eventsunavailable